Exposure of real estate properties to the 2018 Hurricane Florence flooding

Abstract

Abstract. Quantifying the potential exposure of property to damages associated with storm surges, extreme weather and hurricanes is fundamental to developing frameworks that can be used to conceive and implement mitigation plans as well as support urban development that accounts for such events. In this study, we aim at quantifying the total value and area of properties exposed to the flooding associated with Hurricane Florence that occurred in September 2018. To this aim, we implement an approach for the identification of affected areas by generating a map of the maximum flood extent obtained from a combination of the flood extent produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) water marks with those obtained from spaceborne radar remote-sensing data. The use of radar in the creation of the flood extent allows for those properties commonly missed by FEMA's interpolation methods, especially from pluvial or non-fluvial sources, and can be used in more accurately estimating the exposure and market value of properties to event-specific flooding. Lastly, we study and quantify how the urban development over the past decades in the regions flooded by Hurricane Florence might have impacted the exposure of properties to present-day storms and floods. This approach is conceptually similar to what experts are addressing as the “expanding bull's eye effect”, in which “targets” of geophysical hazards, such as people and their built environments, enlarge as populations grow and spread. Our results indicate that the total value of property exposed to flooding during Hurricane Florence was USD 52 billion (in 2018 USD), with this value increasing from USD ∼10 billion at the beginning of the past century to the final amount based on the expansion of the number of properties exposed. We also found that, despite the decrease in the number of properties built during the decade before Florence, much of the new construction was in proximity to permanent water bodies, hence increasing exposure to flooding. Ultimately, the results of this paper provide a new tool for shedding light on the relationships between urban development in coastal areas and the flooding of those areas, which is estimated to increase in view of projected increasing sea level rise, storm surges and the strength of storms.