Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Abstract

Abstract. The Mekong Delta is the most important food production area in Vietnam, but salinity intrusion during the dry season poses a serious threat to agricultural production and livelihoods. A seasonal forecast of salinity intrusion is required in order to mitigate the negative effects. This communication presents a statistical seasonal forecast model based on logistic regression using either the ENSO34 index or streamflow as a predictor. The model is able to reliably predict the salinity intrusion up to 9 months ahead (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores: >0.8). The model can thus be used operationally as a basis for timely adaptation and mitigation planning.