Abstract
Abstract. The Naples (southern Italy) area has the highest volcanic
risk in the world due to the coexistence of three highly explosive
volcanoes (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia) with extremely dense
urbanisation. More than 3 million people live to within 20
kilometres from a possible eruptive vent. Mitigating such an extreme risk is
made difficult because volcanic eruption forecasting is currently an empirical
procedure with a very uncertain outcome. This paper starts by recalling the state
of the art of eruption forecasting, and then describes the main hazards in the
Neapolitan area, shortly presenting the activity and present state of its
volcanoes. Then, it proceeds to suggest the most effective procedures to
mitigate the extreme volcanic and associated risks. The problem is addressed
in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic,
sociological and urban issues. The proposed mitigation actions are then
compared with the existing emergency plans, developed by Italian Civil
Protection, by highlighting their numerous, very evident faults. Our study,
besides regarding the most complex and extreme situation of volcanic risk in
the world, gives guidelines for assessing and managing volcanic risk in any
densely urbanised area.
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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