Reducing uncertainty bounds of two-dimensional hydrodynamic model output by constraining model roughness

Abstract

Abstract. The consideration of uncertainties in flood risk assessment has received increasing attention over the last two decades. However, the assessment is not reported in practice due to the lack of best practices and too wide uncertainty bounds. We present a method to constrain the model roughness based on measured water levels and reduce the uncertainty bounds of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Results show that the maximum uncertainty in roughness generated an uncertainty bound in the water level of 1.26 m (90 % confidence interval) and by constraining roughness, the bounds can be reduced as much as 0.92 m.