Abstract
Abstract. Landslides threaten the safety of vehicles on highways. When
analyzing the risk of a landslide hitting moving vehicles, the spacing
between vehicles and the types of vehicles on the highway can be highly
uncertain and have often been omitted in previous studies. Using a highway slope in Hong Kong as a case study, this paper presents a method
for assessing the risk of moving vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide; this method also allows for the possible number of different types of vehicles hit by the
landslide to be investigated. In this case study, the annual failure
probability of the slope is analyzed based on historical slope failure data
from Hong Kong. The spatial impact of the landslide is evaluated based on an
empirical run-out prediction model. The consequences of the landslide are assessed using
probabilistic modeling of the traffic, which can consider uncertainties in the
vehicle spacing, vehicle types and slope failure time. Using the suggested
method, the expected annual number of vehicles and people hit by the
landslide can be conveniently calculated. This method can also be used to derive the
cumulative frequency–number of fatalities curve for societal risk
assessment. Using the suggested method, the effect of factors like the annual
failure probability of the slope and the density of vehicles on the risk level of
the slope can be conveniently assessed. The method described in this paper
can provide a new guideline for highway slope design in terms of managing
the risk of landslides hitting moving vehicles.
Funder
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Cited by
15 articles.
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