Inhomogeneous precursor characteristics of rock with prefabricated cracks before fracture and its implication for earthquake monitoring

Abstract

Abstract. Earthquake precursors and earthquake monitoring are always important in the earthquake research field, even if there is still debate about the existence of earthquake precursors. However, it is extremely difficult to observe the seismogenic environment of earthquakes directly. Laboratory rupture experiment is a useful technique to simulate and gain an insight into the complex mechanisms of earthquakes. Five marble samples with prefabricated cracks are used for uniaxial loading experiments to investigate whether there is a precursory signal before rock fracture and to simulate the rupture process of strike-slip fault. The existence of a precursory signal is confirmed by the coefficient of variation (CV) results, from which we can see two patterns which are known as seismicity acceleration and quiescence before an earthquake. Moreover, these CV findings are applied to determine the locations of large deformation sampling points on the rock surface at different loading stages. Similar results are obtained when we consider actual seismicity at the northern end of the San Andreas Fault in California, which provides crucial evidence to prove the existence of precursor characteristics. In this case, three kinds of seismic monitoring models are designed to find out how to monitor these characteristics more effectively.