Dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff changes at the catchment scale across China

Abstract

Abstract. With global climate changes intensifying, the hydrological response to climate changes has attracted more attention. It is beneficial not only for hydrology and ecology but also for water resource planning and management to understand the impact of climate change on runoff. In addition, there are large spatial variations in climate type and geographic characteristics across China. To gain a better understanding of the spatial variation of the response of runoff to changes in climatic factors and to detect the dominant climatic factors driving changes in annual runoff, we chose the climate elasticity method proposed by Yang and Yang (2011). It is shown that, in most catchments of China, increasing air temperature and relative humidity have negative impacts on runoff, while declining net radiation and wind speed have positive impacts on runoff, which slow the overall decline in runoff. The dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff are precipitation in most parts of China, net radiation mainly in some catchments of southern China, air temperature and wind speed mainly in some catchments in northern China.