Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C
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Published:2018-05-18
Issue:2
Volume:9
Page:543-562
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ISSN:2190-4987
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Container-title:Earth System Dynamics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Earth Syst. Dynam.
Author:
Chen Yi,Zhang Zhao,Tao Fulu
Abstract
Abstract. A new temperature goal of “holding the increase in global average
temperature well below 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ∘C above
pre-industrial levels” has been established in the Paris Agreement, which
calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C
warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth
and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China
during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C using a
method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the
Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area
(MCWLA) family
crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate
projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial
patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and
drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop
yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative
impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in
south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease
in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with
moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and
atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as
light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy
photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The
moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment
but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and
rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9
(+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (−1.7 %), respectively, in a
warming scenario of 1.5 ∘C (2.0 ∘C). In general, the
warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop
development and food security in China. Moreover, although the variability of
crop yield would increase from 1.5 ∘C warming to 2.0 ∘C
warming, the probability of a crop yield decrease would decrease. Our
findings highlight that the 2.0 ∘C warming scenario would be more
suitable for crop production in China, but more attention should be paid to
the expected increase in extreme event impacts.
Funder
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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