A comparison of the climate and carbon cycle effects of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent reduction in fossil fuel emissions

Abstract

Abstract. Afforestation and reduction of fossil fuel emissions are two major components of climate mitigation policies. However, their effects on the Earth's climate are different because a reduction of fossil fuel emissions directly alters the biogeochemical cycle of the climate system and modifies the physics of the atmosphere via its impact on radiation and the energy budget, while afforestation causes biophysical changes in addition to changes in the biogeochemical cycle. In this paper, we compare the climate and carbon cycle consequences of carbon removal by afforestation and an equivalent fossil fuel emission reduction using simulations from an intermediate complexity Earth system model. We performed two major sets of idealized simulations in which fossil fuel emissions follow extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5), and equal amounts of carbon are removed by afforestation in one set and by a reduction in fossil fuel emissions in another set. Our simulations show that the climate is cooler by 0.36, 0.47, and 0.42 ∘C in the long term (2471–2500) in the case of reduced fossil fuel emissions compared to the case with afforestation when the emissions follow the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The global mean surface temperature is cooler in the reduced fossil fuel emissions case compared to the afforestation case because the net biophysical effect of warming from afforestation partly offsets the biogeochemical cooling effect of afforestation. Thus, in terms of climate benefits, reducing fossil fuel emissions could be relatively more beneficial than afforestation for the same amount of carbon removed from the atmosphere. However, a robust understanding of the processes that govern the biophysical effects of afforestation should be improved before considering our results for climate policy.