Anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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Published:2019-11-18
Issue:22
Volume:19
Page:13827-13839
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ISSN:1680-7324
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Container-title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Author:
Lund Marianne T.ORCID, Myhre GunnarORCID, Samset Bjørn H.
Abstract
Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are expected to change drastically over
the coming decades, with potentially significant climate implications. Using
the most recent generation of harmonized emission scenarios, the Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as input to a global chemistry transport and
radiative transfer model, we provide estimates of the projected future
global and regional burdens and radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols
under three contrasting pathways for air pollution levels: SSP1-1.9,
SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. We find that the broader range of future air
pollution emission trajectories spanned by the SSPs compared to previous
scenarios translates into total aerosol forcing estimates in 2100 relative
to 1750 ranging from −0.04 in SSP1-1.9 to −0.51 W m−2 in
SSP3-7.0. Compared to our 1750–2015 estimate of −0.55 W m−2, this shows
that, depending on the success of air pollution policies and socioeconomic
development over the coming decades, aerosol radiative forcing may weaken by
nearly 95 % or remain close to the preindustrial to present-day level. In
all three scenarios there is a positive forcing in 2100 relative to 2015,
from 0.51 in SSP1-1.9 to 0.04 W m−2 in SSP3-7.0. Results
also demonstrate significant differences across regions and scenarios,
especially in South Asia and Africa. While rapid weakening of the negative
aerosol forcing following effective air quality policies will unmask more of
the greenhouse-gas-induced global warming, slow progress on mitigating air
pollution will significantly enhance the atmospheric aerosol levels and risk
to human health in these regions. In either case, the resulting impacts on
regional and global climate can be significant.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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