Contributions of Nordic anthropogenic emissions on air pollution and premature mortality over the Nordic region and the Arctic
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Published:2019-10-21
Issue:20
Volume:19
Page:12975-12992
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ISSN:1680-7324
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Container-title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Author:
Im UlasORCID, Christensen Jesper H.ORCID, Nielsen Ole-Kenneth, Sand MariaORCID, Makkonen Risto, Geels CamillaORCID, Anderson Camilla, Kukkonen Jaakko, Lopez-Aparicio Susana, Brandt Jørgen
Abstract
Abstract. This modeling study presents the sectoral contributions of anthropogenic
emissions in the four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden)
on air pollution levels and the associated health impacts and costs over the
Nordic and the Arctic regions for the year 2015. The Danish Eulerian
Hemispheric Model (DEHM) has been used on a 50 km resolution over Europe in
tagged mode in order to calculate the response of a 30 % reduction of each
emission sector in each Nordic country individually. The emission sectors
considered in the study were energy production, non-industrial/commercial
heating, industry, traffic, off-road mobile sources and waste
management/agriculture. In total, 28 simulations were carried out. Following
the air pollution modeling, the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA)
model has been used to calculate the associated premature mortality and
their costs. Results showed that more than 80 % of the PM2.5
concentration was attributed to transport from outside these four countries,
implying an effort outside the Nordic region in order to decrease the
pollutant levels over the area. The leading emission sector in each country
was found to be non-industrial combustion (contributing by more than 60 %
to the total PM2.5 mass coming from the country itself), except for
Sweden, where industry contributed to PM2.5 with a comparable amount to
non-industrial combustion. In addition to non-industrial combustion, the
next most important source categories were industry, agriculture and
traffic. The main chemical constituent of PM2.5 concentrations that
comes from the country itself is calculated to be organic carbon in all
countries, which suggested that non-industrial wood burning was the dominant
national source of pollution in the Nordic countries. We have estimated the
total number of premature mortality cases due to air pollution to be around
4000 in Denmark and Sweden and around 2000 in Finland and Norway. These
premature mortality cases led to a total cost of EUR 7 billion in the
selected Nordic countries. The assessment of the related premature mortality
and associated cost estimates suggested that non-industrial combustion,
together with industry and traffic, will be the main sectors to be targeted
in emission mitigation strategies in the future.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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