Weakening of the tropical tropopause layer cold trap with global warming

Abstract

Abstract. Lagrangian trajectories have previously been used to reconstruct water vapor variability in the lower stratosphere, where the sensitivity of surface radiation to changes in the water vapor concentration is strongest, by obtaining temperature histories of air parcels that ascend from the troposphere to the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Models and theory predict an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) and deceleration of the Walker circulation with surface warming, and both of these will drive future changes to transport across the TTL. Here, we examine the response of TTL transport during boreal winter to idealized changes in the BDC and Walker circulation by comparing the temperature histories of trajectories computed with ERA5 data to those calculated using the same data but with altered vertical and zonal wind velocities. We find that lower-stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios calculated from trajectories' cold point temperatures can increase by about 1.6 ppmv (about 50 %) when only zonal winds are slowed, while changes to vertical winds have a negligible impact on water vapor concentrations. This change follows from a decrease in zonal sampling of the temperature field by trajectories, which weakens the “cold trap” mechanism of dehydration as TTL transport evolves. As the zonal winds of the TTL decrease, the fraction of air that passes through the cold trap while ascending to the stratosphere will decrease and the coldest average temperature experienced by parcels will increase. Future changes to TTL temperatures can be applied as an offset to these temperature histories, including enhanced warming of the cold trap due to El Niño-like warming, which has a secondary impact on the fraction of air that is dehydrated by the cold trap. Some of the resultant moistening may be negated by a decreased rate of temperature change following the cold point, which will allow more ice to gravitationally settle before sublimating outside of the cold trap. This result presents a mechanism for a stratospheric water vapor feedback that can exist without changes to TTL temperatures.