^GA<i>SAKe</i>: forecasting landslide activations by a genetic-algorithms based hydrological model

Abstract

Abstract. GASAKe is a new hydrological model aimed at forecasting the triggering of landslides. The model is based on genetic-algorithms and allows to obtaining thresholds of landslide activation from the set of historical occurrences and from the rainfall series. GASAKe can be applied to either single landslides or set of similar slope movements in a homogeneous environment. Calibration of the model is based on genetic-algorithms, and provides for families of optimal, discretized solutions (kernels) that maximize the fitness function. Starting from these latter, the corresponding mobility functions (i.e. the predictive tools) can be obtained through convolution with the rain series. The base time of the kernel is related to the magnitude of the considered slope movement, as well as to hydro-geological complexity of the site. Generally, smaller values are expected for shallow slope instabilities with respect to large-scale phenomena. Once validated, the model can be applied to estimate the timing of future landslide activations in the same study area, by employing recorded or forecasted rainfall series. Example of application of GASAKe to a medium-scale slope movement (the Uncino landslide at San Fili, in Calabria, Southern Italy) and to a set of shallow landslides (in the Sorrento Peninsula, Campania, Southern Italy) are discussed. In both cases, a successful calibration of the model has been achieved, despite unavoidable uncertainties concerning the dates of landslide occurrence. In particular, for the Sorrento Peninsula case, a fitness of 0.81 has been obtained by calibrating the model against 10 dates of landslide activation; in the Uncino case, a fitness of 1 (i.e. neither missing nor false alarms) has been achieved against 5 activations. As for temporal validation, the experiments performed by considering the extra dates of landslide activation have also proved satisfactory. In view of early-warning applications for civil protection purposes, the capability of the model to simulate the occurrences of the Uncino landslide has been tested by means of a progressive, self-adaptive procedure. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been performed by taking into account the main parameters of the model. The obtained results are quite promising, given the high performance of the model obtained against different types of slope instabilities, characterized by several historical activations. Nevertheless, further refinements are still needed for applications to landslide risk mitigation within early-warning and decision-support systems.