Recent decline of the Black Sea oxygen inventory

Abstract

Abstract. We show that from 1955 to 2013, the inventory of oxygen in the Black Sea has decreased by 36 % and the basin-averaged oxygen penetration depth has decreased from 140 m in 1955 to 90 m in 2013, which is the shallowest annual value recorded during that period. The oxygenated Black Sea surface layer separates the world's largest reservoir of toxic hydrogen sulphide from the atmosphere. The threat of chemocline excursion events led to hot debates in the past decades arguing on the vertical stability of the Black Sea oxic/suboxic interface. In the 1970s and 1980s the Black Sea faced severe eutrophication. Enhanced respiration rates reduced the thickness of the oxygenated layer. The consecutive increase of oxygen inventory in 1985–1995 supported arguments in favor of the stability of the oxic layer. Concomitant with a reduction of nutrient loads, this increase also supported the perception of a Black Sea recovering from eutrophication. More recently, atmospheric warming was shown to reduce the ventilation of the lower oxic layer by lowering Cold Intermediate Layer (CIL) formation rates. The debate on the vertical migration of the oxic interface also addressed the natural spatial variability affecting Black Sea properties when expressed in terms of depth. Here we show that using isopycnal coordinates does not free from a significant spatial variability of oxygen penetration depths. Considering this spatial variability, the analysis of a composite historical set of oxygen profiles evidenced a significant shoaling of the oxic layer, and showed that the transient "recovery" of the 1990s was mainly a result of increased CIL formation rates during that period. As both atmospheric warming and eutrophication are expected to increase in the near future, monitoring the dynamics of the Black Sea oxic layer is required to assess the threat of further shoaling.