Abstract
Abstract. Air pollutant emissions estimates by top-down methods are
subject to a variety of errors and uncertainties. This work uses a known
source, a coal-fired power plant, to explore those errors. The known
emissions amount and location remove two major types of error, facilitating
understanding of other types. Biases and random errors are distinguished. A
Lagrangian dispersion model (HYSPLIT) is run forward in time from the known
source, and virtual measurements of the resulting tracer plume are compared
to actual measurements from research aircraft. Four flights in different
years are used to illustrate a variety of conditions. The measurements are
analyzed by a mass-balance method, and the assumptions of that method are
discussed. Some of those assumptions can be relaxed in analysis of the
modeled plume, allowing testing of their validity. Meteorological fields to
drive HYSPLIT are provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts Fifth Reanalysis (ERA5). A unique feature of this work is the use
of an ensemble of meteorological fields intrinsic to ERA5. This analysis
supports reasonably large (30 %–40 %) uncertainties on top-down analyses.
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