Abstract
Abstract. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to reduce
global warming in spite of high greenhouse-gas concentrations and to lower the chance
of warming-induced tipping points. However, SRM may cause economic damages and its
feasibility is still uncertain. To investigate the trade-off between these (economic) gains and
damages, we incorporate SRM into a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model and
perform the first rigorous cost–benefit analysis of sulfate-based SRM under uncertainty,
treating warming-induced climate tipping and SRM failure as stochastic elements.
We find that within our model, SRM has the potential to greatly enhance future welfare and
merits being taken seriously as a policy option. However, if only SRM and no
CO2 abatement is used, global warming is not stabilised and will exceed 2 K.
Therefore, even if successful, SRM can not replace but only complement
CO2 abatement. The optimal policy combines CO2
abatement and modest SRM and succeeds in keeping global warming below 2 K.
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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