Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea
-
Published:2022-02-01
Issue:1
Volume:22
Page:265-286
-
ISSN:1684-9981
-
Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Amadio MattiaORCID, Essenfelder Arthur H.ORCID, Bagli Stefano, Marzi Sepehr, Mazzoli Paolo, Mysiak JaroslavORCID, Roberts StephenORCID
Abstract
Abstract. The combined effect of global sea level rise and land subsidence phenomena
poses a major threat to coastal settlements. Coastal flooding events are
expected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potential
economic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of the
population and economic activities are located along the low-lying coastal
plain of the North Adriatic coast, one of the most sensitive areas to relative sea
level changes. Over the last half a century, this stretch of coast has
experienced a significant rise in relative sea level, the main component of
which was land subsidence; in the forthcoming decades, climate-induced sea
level rise is expected to become the first driver of coastal inundation
hazard. We propose an assessment of flood hazard and risk linked with
extreme sea level scenarios, under both historical conditions and sea level
rise projections in 2050 and 2100. We run a hydrodynamic inundation model on
two pilot sites located along the North Adriatic coast of Emilia-Romagna:
Rimini and Cesenatico. Here, we compare alternative extreme sea level
scenarios accounting for the effect of planned and hypothetical seaside
renovation projects against the historical baseline. We apply a flood damage
model to estimate the potential economic damage linked to flood scenarios,
and we calculate the change in expected annual damage according to changes
in the relative sea level. Finally, damage reduction benefits are evaluated
by means of cost–benefit analysis. Results suggest an overall profitability
of the investigated projects over time, with increasing benefits due to
increased probability of intense flooding in the near future.
Funder
Horizon 2020 EIT Climate-KIC
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Reference110 articles.
1. Amadio, M., Scorzini, A. R., Carisi, F., Essenfelder, A. H., Domeneghetti, A., Mysiak, J., and Castellarin, A.: Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 661–678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019, 2019. 2. Amadio, M. and Essenfelder, A. H.: Coastal flood inundation
scenarios over Cesenatico and Rimini: hazard and risk for Business as Usual
and Defended options, Zenodo [data set], https://zenodo.org/record/4783443, 2021. 3. Anderson, T. R., Fletcher, C. H., Barbee, M. M., Romine, B. M., Lemmo, S.,
and Delevaux, J. M. S. M. S.: Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses
reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding
methods, Sci. Rep., 8, 14484, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32658-x,
2018. 4. Annunziato, A. and Probst, P.: Continuous Harmonics Analysis of Sea Level
Measurements: Description of a new method to determine sea level measurement
tidal component, https://doi.org/10.2788/4295, 2016. 5. Antonioli, F., Anzidei, M., Amorosi, A., Lo Presti, V., Mastronuzzi, G.,
Deiana, G., De Falco, G., Fontana, A., Fontolan, G., Lisco, S., Marsico, A.,
Moretti, M., Orrù, P. E., Sannino, G. M., Serpelloni, E., and Vecchio,
A.: Sea-level rise and potential drowning of the Italian coastal plains:
Flooding risk scenarios for 2100, Quat. Sci. Rev., 158, 29–43,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.12.021, 2017.
Cited by
4 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|