Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling
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Published:2022-03-07
Issue:3
Volume:22
Page:693-711
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ISSN:1684-9981
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Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Médus ErikaORCID, Thomassen Emma D., Belušić DanijelORCID, Lind PetterORCID, Berg PeterORCID, Christensen Jens H.ORCID, Christensen Ole B.ORCID, Dobler Andreas, Kjellström ErikORCID, Olsson JonasORCID, Yang WeiORCID
Abstract
Abstract. It is well established that using kilometer scale grid resolution for simulations of weather systems in weather and climate models enhances their
realism. This study explores heavy- and extreme-precipitation characteristics over the Nordic region generated by the regional climate model
HARMONIE-Climate (HCLIM). Two model setups of HCLIM are used: ERA-Interim-driven HCLIM12 spanning over Europe at 12 km grid spacing with a
convection parameterization scheme and HCLIM3 spanning over the Nordic region with 3 km grid spacing and explicitly resolved deep
convection. The HCLIM simulations are evaluated against a unique and comprehensive set of gridded and in situ observation datasets for the warm
season from April to September regarding their ability to reproduce sub-daily and daily heavy-precipitation statistics across the Nordic
region. Both model setups are able to capture the daily heavy-precipitation characteristics in the analyzed region. At the sub-daily scale, HCLIM3
clearly improves the statistics of occurrence of the most intense heavy-precipitation events and the amplitude and timing of the diurnal cycle of
these events compared to its forcing of HCLIM12. Extreme value analysis shows that HCLIM3 provides added value in capturing sub-daily return levels
compared to HCLIM12, which fails to produce the most extreme events. The results indicate clear benefits of the convection-permitting model in
simulating heavy and extreme precipitation in the present-day climate, therefore, offering a motivating way forward to investigate the climate
change impacts in the region.
Funder
Academy of Finland Maj ja Tor Nesslingin Säätiö Horizon 2020 Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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