An updated area-source seismogenic model (MA4) for seismic hazard of Italy
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Published:2022-08-26
Issue:8
Volume:22
Page:2807-2827
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ISSN:1684-9981
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Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Visini FrancescoORCID, Meletti CarloORCID, Rovida AndreaORCID, D'Amico VeraORCID, Pace BrunoORCID, Pondrelli SilviaORCID
Abstract
Abstract. A new probabilistic seismic hazard model, called Modello di Pericolosità Sismica 2019 (MPS19), has been
recently proposed for the Italian territory, as a result of the efforts of a
large national scientific community. This model is based on 11 groups of
earthquake rupture forecast inputs and, particularly, on 5 area-source
seismogenic models, including the so-called MA4 model. Data-driven
procedures were followed in MA4 to evaluate seismogenic parameters of each
area source, such as upper and lower seismogenic depths, hypocentral-depth
distributions, and nodal planes. In a few cases, expert judgement or ad hoc
assumptions were necessary due to the scarcity of data. MA4 consists of 20
seismicity models that consider epistemic uncertainty in the estimations of
the completeness periods of the earthquake catalogue, of maximum magnitude
values and of seismicity rates. In particular, five approaches were adopted to
calculate the rates, in the form of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter
frequency–magnitude distribution. The first approach estimated seismicity
rates using earthquakes located in each area source, while the other
approaches firstly calculated the seismicity rates for groups of areas
considered tectonically homogeneous and successively partitioned in
different ways the values to the area forming each group. The results obtained in terms of seismic hazard estimates highlight that the
uncertainty explored by the 20 seismicity models of MA4 is at least of the
same order of magnitude as the uncertainty due to alternative ground motion
models.
Funder
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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