Physically based modeling of co-seismic landslide, debris flow, and flood cascade

Abstract

Abstract. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake lead to various complex multi-hazard chains that included seismically triggered landslide initiation, landslide runout, river damming, dam breaching, and flooding. The modeling of the interactions between such hazardous processes is challenging due to the complexity and uncertainty. Here we present an event-based physically based model that is able to simulate multi-hazard land surface process chains within a single unified simulation. The final model is used to simulate a multi-hazard chain event in the Hongchun watershed, where co-seismic landslides led to a landslide dam and, 2 years later, a debris flow that breached the landslide dam. While most aspects of the multi-hazard chain are predicted well, the correct prediction of slope failures remains the biggest challenge. Although the results should be treated carefully, the development of such a model provides a significant progress in the applicability of multi-hazard chain simulations.