Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble
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Published:2021-12-08
Issue:6
Volume:17
Page:2537-2558
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ISSN:1814-9332
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Container-title:Climate of the Past
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Clim. Past
Author:
Han ZixuanORCID, Zhang QiongORCID, Li QiangORCID, Feng Ran, Haywood Alan M., Tindall Julia C., Hunter Stephen J.ORCID, Otto-Bliesner Bette L.ORCID, Brady Esther C.ORCID, Rosenbloom NanORCID, Zhang ZhongshiORCID, Li XiangyuORCID, Guo ChunchengORCID, Nisancioglu Kerim H.ORCID, Stepanek ChristianORCID, Lohmann GerritORCID, Sohl Linda E.ORCID, Chandler Mark A.ORCID, Tan Ning, Ramstein Gilles, Baatsen Michiel L. J.ORCID, von der Heydt Anna S.ORCID, Chandan DeepakORCID, Peltier W. RichardORCID, Williams Charles J. R.ORCID, Lunt Daniel J.ORCID, Cheng Jianbo, Wen Qin, Burls Natalie J.
Abstract
Abstract. The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased
atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the
thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics,
i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime
Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic
effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional
precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift
and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is
offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley
circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the
Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of
Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric
transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the
atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of
the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation,
favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the
Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models,
leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2
ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy
during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect,
offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene
hydroclimate.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Paleontology,Stratigraphy,Global and Planetary Change
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