Differences in volcanic risk perception among Goma's population before the Nyiragongo eruption of May 2021, Virunga volcanic province (DR Congo)

Abstract

Abstract. Risk perception is an essential element to consider for effective risk management at the time of eruption, especially in densely populated cities close to volcanoes like Goma in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is highly exposed to volcanic hazards from Nyiragongo. The perception of volcanic risk involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of volcanic hazards. Using a questionnaire survey, this study describes the spatial differences and factors influencing the individual volcanic risk perception of 2224 adults from eight representative neighbourhoods of Goma before the May 2021 Nyiragongo eruption. A composite risk perception indicator was built from the perceived severity and perceived vulnerability. Statistical analysis of the survey's results shows that the risk perception was high (mean = 3.7 on a five-point Likert scale) and varies less with demographic and contextual factors than with cognitive and psychological factors. Volcanic hazards were perceived to be more threatening the city and its functioning than the individuals themselves. The spatial analysis shows that respondents from the eastern neighbourhoods, affected by the 2002 eruption, demonstrated a significantly higher level of risk perception than participants living in the western neighbourhoods. This study will help to improve volcanic risk awareness raising in Goma.