Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation

Abstract

Abstract. An extreme rainfall event occurred from 8 to 12 December 2018 along the coast of central Vietnam. The observed maximum rainfall amount in 72 h was over 900 mm and set a new record, and the associated heavy losses were also significant. The analysis of this event shows some key factors for its occurrence: (1) the interaction between the strong northeasterly winds, blowing from the Yellow Sea into the northern South China Sea (SCS), and easterly winds over the SCS in the lower troposphere (below 700 hPa). This interaction created strong low-level convergence, as the winds continued to blow into central Vietnam against the Truong Son Range, resulting in forced uplift over the coastal plains due to the terrain's barrier effect. Furthermore, the low-level convergence in this event was strong enough, and the air was unstable enough to trigger most of the convection near the shoreline (further inland). As a consequence, heavy rainfall occurred along the coastal zone and coastal sea. (2) The strong easterly wind played an important role in transporting moisture from the western North Pacific (WNP) across the Philippines and the SCS into central Vietnam. (3) The Truong Son Range also contributed to this event due to its barrier effect. (4) In addition to cumulonimbus, the low-level precipitating clouds such as nimbostratus clouds were also major contributors to rainfall accumulation for the whole event. The analyses of local thermodynamics also indicate that the southward movement of the low-level wind convergence zone caused the southward movement of the main heavy rain band during the event. The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) was employed to simulate this record-breaking event at a grid size of 2.5 km; evaluated results show that the model simulated the surface wind well and captured the southward movement of the low-level wind convergence. The overall rainfall can be captured quite well, not only in quantity but also in its spatial distribution (with a similarity skill score (SSS) ≈0.7 and threat score (TS) >0 at 700 mm for 72 h rainfall). Thus, the CReSS model is shown to be a useful tool for both research and forecasts of heavy rainfall in Vietnam. The model performed better for the rainfall during 9–10 December 2018 but not as good on 11 December 2018. In the sensitivity test without the terrain, the model had poorly simulated the surface wind, which resulted in the model generating insufficient rainfall for this event and also not capturing the spatial distribution of the rainfall. Thus, the test confirms the important role played by the local topography for the occurrence of this event.