Development of a seismic loss prediction model for residential buildings using machine learning – Ōtautahi / Christchurch, New Zealand

Abstract

Abstract. This paper presents a new framework for the seismic loss prediction of residential buildings in Ōtautahi / Christchurch, New Zealand. It employs data science techniques, geospatial tools, and machine learning (ML) trained on insurance claims data from the Earthquake Commission (EQC) collected following the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). The seismic loss prediction obtained from the ML model is shown to outperform the output from existing risk analysis tools for New Zealand for each of the main earthquakes of the CES. In addition to the prediction capabilities, the ML model delivered useful insights into the most important features contributing to losses during the CES. ML correctly highlighted that liquefaction significantly influenced building losses for the 22 February 2011 earthquake. The results are consistent with observations, engineering knowledge, and previous studies, confirming the potential of data science and ML in the analysis of insurance claims data and the development of seismic loss prediction models using empirical loss data.