Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
-
Published:2023-08-01
Issue:8
Volume:23
Page:2697-2717
-
ISSN:1684-9981
-
Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Haixia ZhangORCID, Meng Cheng, Weihua Fang
Abstract
Abstract. The impact of natural hazards such as storm surges and
waves on coastal areas during extreme tropical cyclone (TC) events can be
amplified by the cascading effects of multiple hazards. Quantitative
estimation of the marginal distribution and joint probability distribution
of storm surges and waves is essential to understanding and managing
tropical cyclone disaster risks. In this study, the dependence between storm
surges and waves is quantitatively assessed using the extreme value theory
(EVT) and the copula function for the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan of
China, based on numerically simulated surge heights (SHs) and
significant wave heights (SWHs) for every 30 min from 1949 to 2013. The
steps for determining coastal protection standards in scalar values are also
demonstrated. It is found that the generalized extreme value (GEV) function
and Gumbel copula function are suitable for fitting the marginal and joint
distribution characteristics of the SHs and SWHs, respectively, in this
study area. Secondly, the SHs show higher values as locations get closer to
the coastline, and the SWHs become higher further from the coastline.
Lastly, the optimal design values of SHs and SWHs under different joint
return periods can be estimated using the nonlinear programming method.
This study shows the effectiveness of the bivariate copula function in
evaluating the probability for different scenarios, providing a valuable
reference for optimizing the design of engineering protection standards.
Funder
National Key Research and Development Program of China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Reference48 articles.
1. Bazaraa, M. S., Sherali, H. D., and Shetty, C. M.: Nonlinear programming: Theory and algorithms, 3rd edn., John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, 872 pp., ISBN 978-0-471-48600-8, 2006. 2. Bilskie, M. V., Hagen, S. C., Medeiros, S. C., Cox, A. T., Salisbury, M., and Coggin, D.: Data and numerical analysis of astronomic tides, wind-waves, and hurricane storm surge along the northern Gulf of Mexico, J. Geophys.
Res.-Oceans, 121, 3625–3658, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011400, 2016. 3. Bomers, A., Schielen, R. M. J., and Hulscher, S. J. M. H.: Consequences of
dike breaches and dike overflow in a bifurcating river system, Nat. Hazards,
97, 309–334, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03643-y, 2019. 4. Brown, J. M.: A case study of combined wave and water levels under storm
conditions using WAM and SWAN in a shallow water application, Ocean Model.,
35, 215–229, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.07.009, 2010. 5. Cavanaugh, J. E. and Neath, A. A.: The Akaike information criterion: Background, derivation, properties, application, interpretation, and refinements, WIREs Comp. Stat., 11, e1460, https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.1460, 2019.
|
|