Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
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Published:2023-05-24
Issue:5
Volume:23
Page:1863-1890
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ISSN:1684-9981
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Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Feliciano DirsaORCID, Arroyo Orlando, Cabrera Tamara, Contreras Diana, Valcárcel Torres Jairo Andrés, Gómez Zapata Juan CamiloORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Colombia is in one of the most active seismic zones on
Earth, where the Nazca, Caribbean, and South American plates converge.
Approximately 83 % of the national population lives in intermediate to
high seismic hazard zones, and a significant part of the country's building
inventory dates from before the nation's first seismic design code (1984).
At present, seismic risk scenarios are available for the major cities of the country, but there is still a need to undertake such studies in other
regions. This paper presents a seismic risk scenario for the Sabana
Centro province, an intermediate hazard zone located close to the
country's capital. An exposure model was created combining information from
the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, surveys, and the national
census. Fragility and vulnerability curves were assigned to the building
types of the region. A hazard model was developed for the region and
18 earthquake scenarios with a return period of 475 years were
simulated using the OpenQuake (OQ) hazard and risk assessment tool to
estimate damage and economic losses. In addition, a social vulnerability
index (SVI) based on demographic information was used to assess the direct
economic loss in terms of replacement costs. The results show that 10 % of all buildings considered in the region would experience collapse, and 7 % would suffer severe damage. Losses account for 14 % of the total replacement cost of the buildings and represent 21 % of the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of the region.
Funder
Universidad de La Sabana Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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