The 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption and its impact on ionospheric scintillation as measured from GNSS reference stations, GNSS-R and GNSS-RO

Abstract

Abstract. Ionospheric disturbances induced by seismic activity have been studied in recent years by many authors, showing an impact both before and after the occurrence of earthquakes. In this study, the ionospheric scintillation produced by the 2021 La Palma volcano eruption is analyzed. The Cumbre Vieja volcano was active from 19 September to 13 December 2021, and many earthquakes of magnitude 3–4 were recorded, with some of them reaching magnitude 5. Three methods, GNSS reference monitoring, GNSS reflectometry (GNSS-R) from NASA CYGNSS, and GNSS radio occultation (GNSS-RO) from COSMIC and Spire constellations, are used to compare and evaluate their sensitivity as proxies of earthquakes associated with the volcanic eruption. To compare the seismic activity with ionospheric scintillation, seismic energy release, and 95th percentile of the intensity scintillation parameter (S4), measurements have been computed at 6 h intervals for the whole duration of the volcanic eruption. GNSS-RO has shown the best correlation between earthquake energy and S4, with values up to 0.09 when the perturbations occur around 18 h after the seismic activity. GNSS reference monitoring station data also show some correlation 18 h and 7–8 d after. As expected, GNSS-R is the one that shows the smallest correlation, as the ionospheric signatures get masked by the signature of the surface where the reflection is taking place. Additionally, the three methods show a smaller correlation during the week before earthquakes. Given the small magnitude of the seismic activity, the correlation is barely detectable in this situation, and thus would be difficult to use in any application to find earthquake proxies.