Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models
-
Published:2022-11-24
Issue:4
Volume:13
Page:1667-1675
-
ISSN:2190-4987
-
Container-title:Earth System Dynamics
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Earth Syst. Dynam.
Author:
Parry Isobel M., Ritchie Paul D. L.ORCID, Cox Peter M.ORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based on an early coupled climate–carbon cycle simulation that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In contrast, the fifth-generation Earth system models (Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP5) produced few examples of Amazon dieback under climate change. Here we examine results from seven sixth-generation models (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6), which include interactive vegetation carbon and in some cases interactive forest fires. Although these models typically project increases in area-mean forest carbon across Amazonia under CO2-induced climate change, five of the seven models also produce abrupt reductions in vegetation carbon, which indicate localised dieback events. The northern South America (NSA) region, which contains most of the rainforest, is especially vulnerable in the models. These dieback events, some of which are mediated by fire, are preceded by an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in near-surface temperature, which is consistent with more extreme dry seasons. Based on the ensemble mean of the detected dieback events we estimate that 7±5 % of the NSA region will experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 ∘C.
Funder
HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council Horizon 2020
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Reference46 articles.
1. Aragão, L., Anderson, L., Fonseca, M., Rosan, T. M., Vedovato, L., Wagner, F., Silva, C., Silva-Junior, C., Arai, E., Aguiar, A. P., Barlow, J., Berenguer, E., Deeter, M., Domingues, L., Gatti, L., Gloor, M., Malhi, Y., Marengo, J., Miller, J., and Saatchi, S.: 21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions, Nat. Commun., 9, 536, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02771-y, 2018. a 2. Arora, V. K., Katavouta, A., Williams, R. G., Jones, C. D., Brovkin, V.,
Friedlingstein, P., Schwinger, J., Bopp, L., Boucher, O., Cadule, P.,
Chamberlain, M. A., Christian, J. R., Delire, C., Rosie, A. F., Hajima, T.,
Ilyina, T., Joetzjer, E., Kawamiya, M., Koven, C. D., Krasting, J. P., Law, R. M., Lawrence, D. M., Lenton, A., Lindsay, K., Pongratz, J., Raddatz, T.,
Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., Tjiputra, J. F., Wiltshire, A., Wu, T., and Ziehn, T.: Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6
models and their comparison to CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020. a 3. Bethke, I., Wang, Y., Counillon, F., Kimmritz, M., Fransner, F., Samuelsen, A., Langehaug, H. R., Chiu, P.-G., Bentsen, M., Guo, C., Kirkevåg, A., Oliviè, D. J. L., Seland, Ø., Fan, Y., Lawrence, P., Eldevik, T., and Keenlyside, N.: NCC NorCPM1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP 1pctCO2,
Earth System Grid Federation [code],
https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.10861, 2019. a 4. Betts, R. A., Cox, P. M., Collins, M., Harris, P. P., Huntingford, C., and
Jones, C. D.: The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated
Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate
warming, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 157–175, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-004-0050-y, 2004. a 5. Booth, B., Jones, C., Collins, M., Totterdell, I., Cox, P., Sitch, S.,
Huntingford, C., Betts, R., Harris, G., and Lloyd, J.: High sensitivity of
future global warming to land carbon cycle processes, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024002, 2012. a
Cited by
10 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|