Evaluation of CH4MOD<sub>wetland</sub> and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) used to estimate global CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from natural wetlands
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Published:2020-08-26
Issue:8
Volume:13
Page:3769-3788
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ISSN:1991-9603
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Container-title:Geoscientific Model Development
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Geosci. Model Dev.
Author:
Li Tingting, Lu Yanyu, Yu Lingfei, Sun Wenjuan, Zhang Qing, Zhang WenORCID, Wang Guocheng, Qin Zhangcai, Yu Lijun, Li Hailing, Zhang Ran
Abstract
Abstract. Wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural sources of atmospheric
methane (CH4). Several process-based models have been developed to
quantify the magnitude and estimate spatial and temporal variations in
CH4 emissions from global wetlands. Reliable models are required to
estimate global wetland CH4 emissions. This study aimed to test two
process-based models, CH4MODwetland and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), against the CH4 flux
measurements of marsh, swamp, peatland and coastal wetland sites across the
world; specifically, model accuracy and generality were evaluated for
different wetland types and in different continents, and then the global
CH4 emissions from 2000 to 2010 were estimated. Both models showed
similar high correlations with the observed seasonal/annual total CH4
emissions, and the regression of the observed versus computed total
seasonal/annual CH4 emissions resulted in R2 values of 0.81 and
0.68 for CH4MODwetland and TEM, respectively. The
CH4MODwetland produced accurate predictions for marshes, peatlands,
swamps and coastal wetlands, with model efficiency (EF) values of 0.22,
0.52, 0.13 and 0.72, respectively. TEM produced good predictions for
peatlands and swamps, with EF values of 0.69 and 0.74, respectively, but it
could not accurately simulate marshes and coastal wetlands (EF <0).
There was a good correlation between the simulated CH4 fluxes and the
observed values on most continents. However, CH4MODwetland showed no
correlation with the observed values in South America and Africa. TEM
showed no correlation with the observations in Europe. The global CH4
emissions for the period 2000–2010 were estimated to be 105.31 ± 2.72 Tg yr−1 by CH4MODwetland and 134.31 ± 0.84 Tg yr−1 by
TEM. Both models simulated a similar spatial distribution of CH4
emissions globally and on different continents. Marshes contribute
36 %–39 % of global CH4 emissions. Lakes/rivers and swamps are the
second and third greatest contributors, respectively. Other wetland types
account for only approximately 20 % of global emissions. Based on the
model applicability, if we use the more accurate model, i.e., the one that
performs best as evidenced by a higher model efficiency and a lower model
bias, to estimate each continent and wetland type, we obtain a new assessment of
116.99–124.74 Tg yr−1 for the global CH4 emissions for the
period 2000–2010. Our results imply that performance at a global scale may
conceal model uncertainty. Efforts should be made to improve model accuracy
for different wetland types and regions, particularly hotspot regions, to
reduce the uncertainty in global assessments.
Funder
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
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