Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in southwestern Kansas: from the wells to people, a holistic coupled natural–human model
-
Published:2017-12-07
Issue:12
Volume:21
Page:6167-6183
-
ISSN:1607-7938
-
Container-title:Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Aistrup Joseph A.,Bulatewicz Tom,Kulcsar Laszlo J.,Peterson Jeffrey M.,Welch Stephen M.,Steward David R.
Abstract
Abstract. The impact of water policy on conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in Groundwater Management District 3 (GMD3) in southwestern Kansas is analyzed using a system-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use patterns, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so doing, we (1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural–human (CNH) system, (2) forecast outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic, and natural components of the integrated system, and (3) develop public policy options for enhanced conservation while minimizing the economic costs for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage reduces the impact of an increasingly drier climate on the region's economy and creates greater long-term stability in the farming sector along with increased employment and population in the region. On the negative side, conservation lowers the net present value of farmers' current investments and there is not a policy scenario that achieves a truly sustainable solution as defined by Peter H. Gleick. This study reinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide policy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.
Funder
Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Engineering,General Environmental Science
Reference59 articles.
1. Ahring, T. S. and Steward, D. R.: Groundwater surface water interactions and the role of phreatophytes in identifying recharge zones, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4133–4142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-4133-2012, 2012. 2. Aistrup, J. A., Kulcsar, L., Mauslein, J. A., Beach, S., and Steward, D. R.: Hyper-extrative Counties in the U.S.: A Coupled-Systems Approach, Appl. Geogr., 37, 88–100, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.09.010, 2013. 3. Aistrup, J. A., Bulatewicz, T., Kulcsar, L. J., Peterson, J. M., Welch, S. M., and Steward, D. R.: Sustaining the Ogallala Aquifer Manuscript, Data Repository for the University of Minnesota, https://doi.org/10.13020/D6S96X, 2017. 4. Barton, D., Saloranta, T., Moe, S., Eggestad, H., and Kuikka, S.: Bayesian belief networks as a meta-modelling tool in integrated river basin management – Pros and cons in evaluating nutrient abatement decisions under uncertainty in a Norwegian river basin, Ecol. Econ., 66, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.02.012, 2008. 5. Beck, N. and Katz, J.: What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data, Am. Polit. Sci. Rev., 89, 634–647, https://doi.org/10.2307/2082979, 1995.
Cited by
5 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|