Development of a deep neural network for predicting 6 h average PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations up to 2 subsequent days using various training data

Abstract

Abstract. Despite recent progress of numerical air quality models, accurate prediction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is still challenging because of uncertainties in physical and chemical parameterizations, meteorological data, and emission inventory databases. Recent advances in artificial neural networks can be used to overcome limitations in numerical air quality models. In this study, a deep neural network (DNN) model was developed for a 3 d forecasting of 6 h average PM2.5 concentrations: the day of prediction (D+0), 1 d after prediction (D+1), and 2 d after prediction (D+2). The DNN model was evaluated against the currently operational Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system in South Korea. Our study demonstrated that the DNN model outperformed the CMAQ modeling results. The DNN model provided better forecasting skills by reducing the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) by 4.1, 2.2, and 3.0 µg m−3 for the 3 consecutive days, respectively, compared with the CMAQ. Also, the false-alarm rate (FAR) decreased by 16.9 %p (D+0), 7.5 %p (D+1), and 7.6 %p (D+2), indicating that the DNN model substantially mitigated the overprediction of the CMAQ in high PM2.5 concentrations. These results showed that the DNN model outperformed the CMAQ model when it was simultaneously trained by using the observation and forecasting data from the numerical air quality models. Notably, the forecasting data provided more benefits to the DNN modeling results as the forecasting days increased. Our results suggest that our data-driven machine learning approach can be a useful tool for air quality forecasting when it is implemented with air quality models together by reducing model-oriented systematic biases.