Acidification, deoxygenation, and nutrient and biomass declines in a warming Mediterranean Sea
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Published:2022-09-01
Issue:17
Volume:19
Page:4035-4065
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ISSN:1726-4189
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Container-title:Biogeosciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Biogeosciences
Author:
Reale MarcoORCID, Cossarini Gianpiero, Lazzari PaoloORCID, Lovato Tomas, Bolzon Giorgio, Masina SimonaORCID, Solidoro Cosimo, Salon Stefano
Abstract
Abstract. The projected warming, nutrient decline, changes in net primary
production, deoxygenation and acidification of the global ocean will affect
marine ecosystems during the 21st century. Here, the climate change-related
impacts on the marine ecosystems of the Mediterranean Sea in the middle and
at the end of the 21st century are assessed using high-resolution
projections of the physical and biogeochemical state of the basin under
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. In both scenarios, the analysis shows
changes in the dissolved nutrient contents of the euphotic
and intermediate layers of the basin, net primary production, phytoplankton
respiration and carbon stock (including phytoplankton, zooplankton,
bacterial biomass and particulate organic matter). The projections also show
uniform surface and subsurface reductions in the oxygen concentration
driven by the warming of the water column and by the increase in ecosystem
respiration as well as an acidification signal in the upper water column linked
to the increase in the dissolved inorganic carbon content of the water
column due to CO2 absorption from the atmosphere and the increase in
respiration. The projected changes are stronger in the RCP8.5 (worst-case)
scenario and, in particular, in the eastern Mediterranean due to the limited
influence of the exchanges in the Strait of Gibraltar in that part of the
basin. On the other hand, analysis of the projections under the RCP4.5
emission scenario shows a tendency to recover the values observed at the
beginning of the 21st century for several biogeochemical variables in the
second half of the period. This result supports the idea – possibly based on
the existence in a system such as the Mediterranean Sea of a certain buffer
capacity and renewal rate – that the implementation of policies for reducing
CO2 emission could indeed be effective and could contribute to the
foundation of ocean sustainability science and policies.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Earth-Surface Processes,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
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