Impacts and uncertainties of climate-induced changes in watershed inputs on estuarine hypoxia
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Published:2023-05-26
Issue:10
Volume:20
Page:1937-1961
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ISSN:1726-4189
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Container-title:Biogeosciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Biogeosciences
Author:
Hinson Kyle E.ORCID, Friedrichs Marjorie A. M.ORCID, Najjar Raymond G., Herrmann Maria, Bian ZihaoORCID, Bhatt Gopal, St-Laurent PierreORCID, Tian Hanqin, Shenk Gary
Abstract
Abstract. Multiple climate-driven stressors, including warming and increased nutrient
delivery, are exacerbating hypoxia in coastal marine environments. Within
coastal watersheds, environmental managers are particularly interested in
climate impacts on terrestrial processes, which may undermine the efficacy
of management actions designed to reduce eutrophication and consequent
low-oxygen conditions in receiving coastal waters. However, substantial
uncertainty accompanies the application of Earth system model (ESM)
projections to a regional modeling framework when quantifying future changes
to estuarine hypoxia due to climate change. In this study, two downscaling
methods are applied to multiple ESMs and used to force two independent
watershed models for Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary of the
eastern United States. The projected watershed changes are then used to
force a coupled 3-D hydrodynamic–biogeochemical estuarine model to project
climate impacts on hypoxia, with particular emphasis on projection
uncertainties. Results indicate that all three factors (ESM, downscaling
method, and watershed model) are found to contribute substantially to the
uncertainty associated with future hypoxia, with the choice of ESM being the
largest contributor. Overall, in the absence of management actions, there is
a high likelihood that climate change impacts on the watershed will expand
low-oxygen conditions by 2050 relative to a 1990s baseline period; however,
the projected increase in hypoxia is quite small (4 %) because only
climate-induced changes in watershed inputs are considered and not those on
the estuary itself. Results also demonstrate that the attainment of
established nutrient reduction targets will reduce annual hypoxia by about
50 % compared to the 1990s. Given these estimates, it is virtually certain
that fully implemented management actions reducing excess nutrient loadings
will outweigh hypoxia increases driven by climate-induced changes in
terrestrial runoff.
Funder
National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Earth-Surface Processes,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
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