Application of logistic regression to simulate the influence of rainfall genesis on storm overflow operations: a probabilistic approach
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Published:2020-02-12
Issue:2
Volume:24
Page:595-614
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ISSN:1607-7938
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Container-title:Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Szeląg Bartosz,Suligowski Roman,Studziński Jan,De Paola Francesco
Abstract
Abstract. One of the key parameters constituting the basis for the
operational assessment of stormwater systems is the annual number of storm
overflows. Since uncontrolled overflows are a source of pollution washed
away from the surface of the catchment area, which leads to imbalanced
receiving waters, there is a need for their prognosis and potential
reduction. The paper presents a probabilistic model for simulating the
annual number of storm overflows. In this model, an innovative solution is
to use the logistic regression method to analyze the impact of rainfall
genesis on the functioning of a storm overflow (OV) in the example of a catchment
located in the city of Kielce (central Poland). The developed model consists of two independent elements. The first element
of the model is a synthetic precipitation generator, in which the simulation
of rainfall takes into account its genesis resulting from various processes
and phenomena occurring in the troposphere. This approach makes it possible
to account for the stochastic nature of rainfall in relation to the annual
number of events. The second element is the model of logistic regression,
which can be used to model the storm overflow resulting from the occurrence
of a single rainfall event. The paper confirmed that storm overflow can be
modeled based on data on the total rainfall and its duration. An
alternative approach was also proposed, providing the possibility of
predicting storm overflow only based on the average rainfall intensity.
Substantial simplification in the simulation of the phenomenon under study
was achieved compared with the works published in this area to date. It is
worth noting that the coefficients determined in the logit models have a
physical interpretation, and the universal character of these models
facilitates their easy adaptation to other examined catchment areas. The calculations made in the paper using the example of the examined
catchment allowed for an assessment of the influence of rainfall characteristics
(depth, intensity, and duration) of different genesis on the probability of
storm overflow. Based on the obtained results, the range of the variability
of the average rainfall intensity, which determines the storm overflow, and
the annual number of overflows resulting from the occurrence of rain of
different genesis were defined. The results are suited for the
implementation in the assessment of storm overflows only based on the
genetic type of rainfall. The results may be used to develop warning systems
in which information about the predicted rainfall genesis is an element of
the assessment of the rainwater system and its facilities. This approach is
an original solution that has not yet been considered by other researchers.
On the other hand, it represents an important simplification and an
opportunity to reduce the amount of data to be measured.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Engineering,General Environmental Science
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