Geothermal heat flux is the dominant source of uncertainty in englacial-temperature-based dating of ice rise formation

Abstract

Abstract. Ice rises are areas of locally grounded, slow-moving ice adjacent to floating ice shelves. Temperature profiles measured through ice rises contain information regarding changes to their dynamic evolution and external forcings, such as past surface temperatures, past accumulation rates and geothermal heat flux. While previous work has used borehole temperature–depth measurements to infer one or two such parameters, there has been no systematic investigation of parameter sensitivity to the interplay of multiple external forcings and dynamic changes. A one-dimensional vertical heat flow forward model developed here examines how changing forcings affect temperature profiles. Further, using both synthetic data and previous measurements from the Crary Ice Rise in Antarctica, we use our model in a Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion to demonstrate that this method has potential as a useful dating technique that can be implemented at ice rises across Antarctica. However, we also highlight the non-uniqueness of previous ice rise formation dating based on temperature profiles, showing that using nominal values for forcing parameters, without taking into account their realistic uncertainties, can lead to underestimation of dating uncertainty. In particular, geothermal heat flux represents the dominant source of uncertainty in ice rise age estimation. For instance, in Crary Ice Rise higher heat flux values (i.e. about 90 mW m−2) yield grounding timing of 1400 ± 800 years, whereas lower heat flux of around 60 mW m−2 implies earlier ice rise formation and lower uncertainties in the ice rise age estimations (500 ± 250 years). We discuss the utility of this method in choosing future ice drilling sites and conclude that integrating this technique with other indirect dating methods can provide useful constraints on past forcings and changing boundary conditions from in situ temperature–depth measurements.