Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift

Abstract

Abstract. Most climatic and glaciological processes exhibit internal variability, which is omitted from many ice sheet model simulations. Prior studies have found that climatic variability can change ice sheet sensitivity to the long-term mean and trend in climate forcing. In this study, we use an ensemble of simulations with a stochastic large-scale ice sheet model to demonstrate that variability in frontal ablation of marine-terminating glaciers changes the mean state of the Greenland Ice Sheet through noise-induced drift. Conversely, stochastic variability in surface mass balance does not appear to cause noise-induced drift in these ensembles. We describe three potential causes for noise-induced drift identified in prior statistical physics literature: noise-induced bifurcations, multiplicative noise, and nonlinearities in noisy processes. Idealized simulations and Reynolds decomposition theory show that for marine ice sheets in particular, noise-induced bifurcations and nonlinearities in variable ice sheet processes are likely the cause of the noise-induced drift. We argue that the omnipresence of variability in climate and ice sheet systems means that the state of real-world ice sheets includes this tendency to drift. Thus, the lack of representation of such noise-induced drift in spin-up and transient ice sheet simulations is a potentially ubiquitous source of bias in ice sheet models.