Impact of climate change on persistent cold-air pools in an alpine valley during the 21st century

Abstract

Abstract. When anticyclonic conditions persist over mountainous regions in winter, cold-air pools (i.e. thermal inversions) develop in valleys and persist from a few days to a few weeks. During these persistent cold-air pool (PCAP) episodes the atmosphere inside the valley is stable and vertical mixing is prevented, promoting the accumulation of pollutants close to the valley bottom and worsening air quality. The purpose of this paper is to address the impact of climate change on PCAPs until the end of this century for the alpine Grenoble valleys. The long-term projections produced with the general circulation model MPI (from the Max Planck Institute) downscaled over the Alps with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) are used to perform a statistical study of PCAPs over the period 1981–2100. The trends of the main characteristics of PCAPs, namely their intensity, duration, and frequency, are investigated for two future scenarios, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. We find that the intensity of PCAPs displays a statistically significant decreasing trend for the SSP5–8.5 scenario only. This decay is explained by the fact that air temperature over the century increases more at 2 m above the valley bottom than in the free air at mid-altitudes in the valley; this might be due to the increase of specific humidity near the ground. The vertical structure of two PCAPs, one in the past and one around 2050, is next investigated in detail. For this purpose, the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model, forced by MAR for the worst-case scenario (SSP5–8.5), is used at a high resolution (111 m). The PCAP episodes are carefully selected from the MAR data so that a meaningful comparison can be performed. The future episode is warmer at all altitudes than the past episode (by at least 4 ∘C) and displays a similar inversion height, which are very likely generic features of future PCAPs. The selected episodes also have similar along-valley wind but different stability, with the future episode being more stable than the past episode. Overall, this study shows that the atmosphere in the Grenoble valleys during PCAP episodes tends to be slightly less stable in the future under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, and statistically unchanged under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, but that very stable PCAPs can still form.