Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: a case study on the July 2015 West-European heat wave
-
Published:2017-05-05
Issue:
Volume:14
Page:115-121
-
ISSN:1992-0636
-
Container-title:Advances in Science and Research
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Adv. Sci. Res.
Author:
Ardilouze ConstantinORCID, Batté LaurianeORCID, Déqué Michel
Abstract
Abstract. An intense heat wave struck West Europe in early July 2015. The degree of anticipation of that event is assessed through the new CNRM near-real time subseasonal to seasonal forecast system. A warm anomaly over France was detected for the first week of July in all the successive forecasts issued in June, even up to one month ahead. On the other hand, the positive 500 hPa geopotential anomaly observed during that period was little anticipated. Despite the limited skill of the forecast system beyond twelve days, the relatively successful anticipation of that event pleads for a predictability study based on a multi-system assessment.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science,Pollution,Geophysics,Ecological Modeling
Reference18 articles.
1. Barbier, J., Guichard, F., Bouniol, D., Couvreux, F., and Roehrig, R.: Spring sahelian heat waves: detection, characteristics and historical trend, J. Climate, submitted, 2017. 2. Batté, L. and Déqué, M.: Randomly correcting model errors in the ARPEGE-Climate v6.1 component of CNRM-CM: applications for seasonal forecasts, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2055–2076, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2055-2016, 2016. 3. Brier, G. W.: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability, Mon. Weather Rev., 78, 1–3, 1950. 4. Brunet, G., Shapiro, M., Hoskins, B., Moncrieff, M., Dole, R., Kiladis, G. N., Kirtman, B., Lorenc, A., Mills, B., Morss, R., Polavarapu, S., Rogers, D., Schaake, J., and Shukla, J.: Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1397–1406, 2010. 5. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Cited by
17 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|