Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review
-
Published:2014-07-31
Issue:7
Volume:18
Page:2789-2801
-
ISSN:1607-7938
-
Container-title:Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Roudier P.,Ducharne A.,Feyen L.
Abstract
Abstract. This review summarizes the impacts of climate change on runoff in West Africa, assesses the uncertainty in the projections and describes future research needs for the region. To do so, we constitute a meta-database made of 19 studies and 301 future runoff change values. The future tendency in streamflow developments is overall very uncertain (median of the 301 points is 0% and mean +5.2%), except for (i) the Gambia River, which exhibits a significant negative change (median = −4.5%), and (ii) the Sassandra and the Niger rivers, where the change is positive (+14.4% and +6.1%). A correlation analysis revealed that runoff changes are tightly linked to changes in rainfall (R = 0.49), and to a smaller extent also to changes in potential evapotranspiration. Other parameters than climate – such as the carbon effect on plant water efficiency, land use dynamics or water withdrawals – could also significantly impact on runoff, but they generally do not offset the effects of climate change. In view of the potential changes, the large uncertainty therein and the high vulnerability of the region to such changes, there is an urgent need for integrated studies that quantify the potential effects of these processes on water resources in West Africa and for more accuracy in climate models rainfall projections. We especially underline the lack of information concerning projections of future floods and droughts, and of interannual fluctuations in streamflow.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Engineering,General Environmental Science
Reference69 articles.
1. Aerts, J. C. J. H., Renssen, H., Ward, P. J., De Moel, H., Odada, E., Bouwer, L. M., and Goosse, H.: Sensitivity of global river discharges under Holocene and future climate conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027493, 2006. 2. Aich, V., Liersch, S., Vetter, T., Huang, S., Tecklenburg, J., Hoffmann, P., Koch, H., Fournet, S., Krysanova, V., Müller, E. N., and Hattermann, F. F.: Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1305–1321, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1305-2014, 2014. 3. Alkama, R., Kageyama, M., and Ramstein, G.: Relative contributions of climate change, stomatal closure, and leaf area index changes to 20th and 21st century runoff change: A modelling approach using the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D17112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jd013408, 2010. 4. Ardoin-Bardin, S., Dezetter, A., Servat, E., Paturel, J. E., Mahé, G., Niel, H., and Dieulin, C.: Using general circulation model outputs to assess impacts of climate change on runoff for large hydrological catchments in West Africa, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 54, 77–89, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.1.77, 2009. 5. Arnell, N. W.: Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global Environ. Change, 14, 31–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006, 2004.
Cited by
120 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|