Intensified modulation of winter aerosol pollution in China by El Niño with short duration

Abstract

Abstract. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon of periodic changes in sea surface temperature in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean, is the strongest signal of interannual variability in the climate system with a quasi-period of 2–7 years. El Niño events have been shown to have important influences on meteorological conditions in China. In this study, the impacts of El Niño with different durations on aerosol concentrations and haze days during December–January–February (DJF) in China are quantitatively examined using the state-of-the-art Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). We find that PM2.5 concentrations are increased by 1–2 µg m−3 in northeastern and southern China and decreased by up to 2.4 µg m−3 in central-eastern China during El Niño events relative to the climatological means. Compared to long-duration (LD) El Niño events, El Niño with short duration (SD) but strong intensity causes northerly wind anomalies over central-eastern China, which is favorable for aerosol dispersion over this region. Moreover, the anomalous southeasterly winds weaken the wintertime prevailing northwesterly in northeastern China and facilitate aerosol transport from southern and southeast Asia, enhancing aerosol increase in northeastern China during SD El Niño events relative to LD El Niño events. In addition, the modulation effect on haze days by SD El Niño events is 2–3 times more than that by LD El Niño events in China. The aerosol variations during El Niño events are mainly controlled by anomalous aerosol accumulation/dispersion and transport due to changes in atmospheric circulation, while El Niño-induced precipitation change has little effect. The occurrence frequency of SD El Niño events has been increasing significantly in recent decades, especially after the 1940s, suggesting that El Niño with short duration has exerted an increasingly intense modulation on aerosol pollution in China over the past few decades.