Abstract
Abstract. We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model for the
spatial distribution of rainfall corresponding to an extreme event of a
specified duration that could be used with regional hydrologic models to
perform a regional hydrologic risk analysis. An extreme event is defined if
any gaging site in the watershed experiences an annual maximum rainfall
event and the spatial field of rainfall at all sites corresponding to that
occurrence is modeled. Applications to data from New York City demonstrate
the effectiveness of the model for providing spatial scenarios that could be
used for simulating loadings into the urban drainage system. Insights as to
the homogeneity in spatial rainfall and its implications for modeling are
provided by considering partial pooling in the hierarchical Bayesian
framework.
Funder
U.S. Department of Energy
National Science Foundation
American International Group
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Engineering,General Environmental Science