Global evaluation of the “dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter” paradigm from a terrestrial water storage change perspective

Abstract

Abstract. The “dry gets drier, and wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm has been widely used to summarize the expected trends of the global hydrologic cycle under climate change. However, the paradigm is largely conditioned by choice of different metrics and datasets used and is still comprehensively unexplored from the perspective of terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs). Considering the essential role of TWSAs in wetting and drying of the land system, here we built upon a large ensemble of TWSA datasets, including satellite-based products, global hydrological models, land surface models, and global climate models to evaluate the DDWW hypothesis during the historical (1985–2014) and future (2071–2100) periods under various scenarios with a 0.05 significance level (for trend estimates). We find that 11.01 %–40.84 % (range by various datasets) of global land confirms the DDWW paradigm, while 10.21 %–35.43 % of the area shows the opposite pattern during the historical period. In the future, the DDWW paradigm is still challenged, with the percentage supporting the pattern lower than 18 % and both the DDWW-validated and DDWW-opposed proportion increasing along with the intensification of emission scenarios. We show that the different choices of data sources can reasonably influence the test results up to a 4-fold difference. Our findings will provide insights and implications for global wetting and drying trends from the perspective of TWSA under climate change.