Aquifer recharge in the Piedmont Alpine zone: historical trends and future scenarios
-
Published:2022-01-26
Issue:2
Volume:26
Page:407-427
-
ISSN:1607-7938
-
Container-title:Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Brussolo Elisa, Palazzi ElisaORCID, von Hardenberg Jost, Masetti Giulio, Vivaldo Gianna, Previati MaurizioORCID, Canone DavideORCID, Gisolo Davide, Bevilacqua IvanORCID, Provenzale AntonelloORCID, Ferraris Stefano
Abstract
Abstract. The spatial and temporal variability of air temperature, precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and their related water balance components, as well as their responses to anthropogenic climate change, provide fundamental information for an effective management of water resources and for a proactive involvement of users and stakeholders, in order to develop and apply adaptation and mitigation strategies at the local level. In this study, using an interdisciplinary research approach tailored to water management needs, we evaluate the past, present and future quantity of water potentially available for drinking supply in the water catchments feeding the about 2.3 million inhabitants of the Turin metropolitan area (the former Province of Turin, north-western Italy), considering climatologies at the quarterly and yearly timescales.
Observed daily maximum surface air temperature and precipitation data from 1959 to 2017 were analysed to assess historical trends, their significance and the possible cross-correlations between the water balance components.
Regional climate model (RCM) simulations from a small ensemble were analysed to provide mid-century projections of the difference between precipitation and AET for the area of interest in the future CMIP5 scenarios RCP4.5 (stabilization) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). Temporal and spatial variations in recharge were approximated with variations of drainage. The impact of irrigation, and of snowpack variability, on the latter was also assessed. The other terms of water balance were disregarded because they are affected by higher uncertainty. The analysis over the historical period indicated that the driest area of the study region displayed significant negative annual (and spring) trends of both precipitation and drainage. Results from field experiments were used to model irrigation,
and we found that relatively wetter watersheds in the northern and in the southern parts behave differently, with a significant increase of AET due to irrigation.
The analysis of future projections suggested almost stationary conditions for annual data. Regarding quarterly data, a slight decrease in summer drainage was found in three out of five models in both emission scenarios. The RCM ensemble exhibits a large spread in the representation of the future drainage trends.
The large interannual variability of precipitation was also quantified and identified as a relevant risk factor for water management, expected to play a major role also in future decades.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Engineering,General Environmental Science
Reference78 articles.
1. Agnese, C., Baiamonte, G., Cammalleri, C., Cat Berro, D., Ferraris, S., and Mercalli, L.: Statistical analysis of inter-arrival times of rainfall events for Italian Sub-Alpine and Mediterranean areas, Adv. Sci. Res., 8, 171–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-8-171-2012, 2012. a 2. Aguilar, C., Herrero, J., and Polo, M. J.: Topographic effects on solar radiation distribution in mountainous watersheds and their influence on reference evapotranspiration estimates at watershed scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2479–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2479-2010, 2010. a 3. Allen, D., Cannon, A., Toews, M., and Scibek, J. Variability in simulated recharge using different GCMs, Water Resour. Res., 46, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008932, 2010. a 4. Allen, R., Pereira, L., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: FAO irrigation and
drainage paper No. 56, Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations, Tech. Rep. 56, 1998. a, b, c 5. ARPA Piemonte: NWIOI daily data, Version 2.1, data updated daily, Rischi Naturali Archive Center [data set], available at:
http://www.arpa.piemonte.it/rischinaturali/tematismi/clima/confronti-storici/dati/dati.html
(last access: 14 August 2020), 2010a. a, b
Cited by
4 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|