Modelling the effects of climate and land cover change on groundwater recharge in south-west Western Australia

Abstract

Abstract. The groundwater resource contained within the sandy aquifers of the Swan Coastal Plain, south west Western Australia, provides approximately 60% of the drinking water for the metropolitan population of Perth. Rainfall decline over the past three decades coupled with increasing water demand from a growing population has resulted in falling dam storage and groundwater levels. Projected future changes in climate across south-west Western Australia consistently show a decline in annual rainfall of between 5 and 15%. There is expected to be a continuing reduction of diffuse recharge across the Swan Coastal Plain. This study aims to quantify the change in groundwater recharge in response to a range of future climate and land cover patterns across south-west Western Australia. Modelling the impact on the groundwater resource of potential climate change was achieved with a dynamically linked unsaturated/saturated groundwater model. A Vertical Flux Manager was used in the unsaturated zone to estimate groundwater recharge using a variety of simple and complex models based on land cover type (e.g. native trees, plantation, cropping, urban, wetland), soil type, and taking into account the groundwater depth. These recharge estimates were accumulated on a daily basis for both observed and projected climate scenarios and used in a MODFLOW simulation with monthly stress periods. In the area centred on the city of Perth, Western Australia, the patterns of recharge change and groundwater level change are not consistent spatially, or consistently downward. In the Dandaragan Plateau to the north-east of Perth there has been groundwater level rise since the 1970s associated with land clearing, and with rainfall projected to reduce the least in this area the groundwater levels are estimated to continue to rise. Along the coastal zone north of Perth there is an interaction between projected rainfall decline and legislated removal to pine forests. This results in areas of increasing recharge and rising water levels into the future despite a drying climate signal. To the south of Perth city there are large areas where groundwater levels are close to the land surface and not expected to change more than 1m upward or downward over the next two decades; it is beyond the accuracy of the model to conclude any definite trend. In the south western part of the study area, the patterns of groundwater recharge are dictated primarily by soil, geology and land cover. In the sandy Swan (northern boundary) and Scott Coastal Plains (southern boundary) there is little response to future climates, because groundwater levels are shallow and much rainfall is rejected recharge. The profile dries out more in summer but this allows more rainfall to infiltrate in winter. Until winter recharge is insufficient to refill the aquifers these areas will not experience significant falls in groundwater levels. On the Blackwood Plateau however, the combination of native vegetation and clayey surface soils that restrict possible infiltration and recharge mean the area is very sensitive to climate change. With low capacity for recharge and low storage in the aquifers, small reductions in recharge can lead to large reductions in groundwater levels. In the northern part of the study area both climate and land cover strongly influence recharge rates. Recharge under native vegetation is minimal and is relatively higher where grazing and pasture systems have been introduced after clearing of native vegetation. In some areas the low recharge values can be reduced to almost zero, even under dryland agriculture, if the future climate becomes very dry. In the Albany Area the groundwater resource is already over allocated, and the combination of existing permanent native vegetation with decreasing annual rainfall indicate reduced recharge. The area requires a reduction in groundwater abstraction to maintain the sustainability of the existing resource.