A universally applicable method of calculating confidence bands for ice nucleation spectra derived from droplet freezing experiments

Abstract

Abstract. A suite of generally applicable statistical methods based on empirical bootstrapping is presented for calculating uncertainty and testing the significance of quantitative differences in temperature and/or ice active site densities between ice nucleation temperature spectra derived from droplet freezing experiments. Such experiments are widely used to determine the heterogeneous ice nucleation properties and ice nucleation particle concentration spectra of different particle samples, as well as in studies of homogeneous freezing. Our methods avoid most of the assumptions and approximations inherent to existing approaches, and when sufficiently large sample sizes are used (approximately >150 droplets and >=1000 bootstrap samples in our system), can capture the full range of random variability and error in ice nucleation spectra. Applications include calculation of accurate confidence intervals and confidence bands, quantitative statistical testing of differences between observed freezing spectra, accurate subtraction of the background filtered water freezing signal, and calculation of a range of statistical parameters using data from a single droplet array freezing experiment if necessary. By providing additional statistical tools to the community, this work will improve the quality and accuracy of statistical tests and representations of uncertainty in future ice nucleation research, and will allow quantitative comparisons of the ice nucleation ability of different particles and surfaces.