Abstract
Abstract. The modifications of atmospheric circulation induced by anthropogenic effects are difficult to capture because wind fields feature a complex spectrum where the signal of large-scale coherent structures (planetary, baroclinic waves and other long-term oscillations) is mixed up with turbulence. Our purpose is to study the effects of climate changes on these two components separately by applying a wavelet analysis to the 700 hPa wind fields obtained in climate simulations for different forcing scenarios. We study the coherent component of the signal via a correlation analysis to detect the persistence of large-scale or long-lasting structures, whereas we use the theory of autoregressive moving-average stochastic processes to measure the spectral complexity of the turbulent component. Under strong anthropogenic forcing, we detect a significant climate change signal. The analysis suggests that coherent structures will play a dominant role in future climate, whereas turbulent spectra will approach a classical Kolmogorov behaviour.
Funder
European Research Council
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Reference42 articles.
1. Barnston, A. G., Chelliah, M., and Goldenberg, S. B.: Documentation of a highly ENSO-related SST region in the equatorial Pacific, Atmos.-Ocean., 35, 367–383, 1997.
2. Box, G. E. and Jenkins, G. M.: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Holden-D. iv, 1970.
3. Cane, M. A. and Zebiak, S. E.: A theory for El Nino and the Southern Oscillation, Science, 228, 1085–1087, 1985.
4. Charney, J. G.: The dynamics of long waves in a baroclinic westerly current, J. Meteorol., 4, 136–162, 1947.
5. Charney, J. G.: Geostrophic turbulence, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1087–1095, 1971.
Cited by
5 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献