The development and evaluation of a hydrological seasonal forecast system prototype for predicting spring flood volumes in Swedish rivers
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Published:2018-05-18
Issue:5
Volume:22
Page:2953-2970
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ISSN:1607-7938
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Container-title:Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Foster Kean, Bertacchi Uvo Cintia, Olsson JonasORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Hydropower makes up nearly half of Sweden's electrical
energy production. However, the distribution of the water resources is not
aligned with demand, as most of the inflows to the reservoirs occur during the
spring flood period. This means that carefully planned reservoir management
is required to help redistribute water resources to ensure optimal
production and accurate forecasts of the spring flood volume (SFV) is
essential for this. The current operational SFV forecasts use a historical
ensemble approach where the HBV
model is forced with historical observations
of precipitation and temperature. In this work we develop and test a
multi-model prototype, building on previous work, and evaluate its ability
to forecast the SFV in 84 sub-basins in northern Sweden. The hypothesis
explored in this work is that a multi-model seasonal forecast system
incorporating different modelling approaches is generally more skilful at
forecasting the SFV in snow dominated regions than a forecast system that
utilises only one approach. The testing is done using cross-validated
hindcasts for the period 1981–2015 and the results are evaluated against
both climatology and the current system to determine skill. Both the
multi-model methods considered showed skill over the reference forecasts.
The version that combined the historical modelling chain, dynamical
modelling chain, and statistical modelling chain performed better than the
other and was chosen for the prototype. The prototype was able to outperform
the current operational system 57 % of the time on average and reduce the
error in the SFV by ∼ 6 % across all sub-basins and forecast
dates.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Engineering,General Environmental Science
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