Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios
-
Published:2023-01-25
Issue:1
Volume:14
Page:55-79
-
ISSN:2190-4987
-
Container-title:Earth System Dynamics
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Earth Syst. Dynam.
Author:
Chen Yangxin, Ji DuoyingORCID, Zhang Qian, Moore John C., Boucher OlivierORCID, Jones AndyORCID, Lurton Thibaut, Mills Michael J.ORCID, Niemeier UlrikeORCID, Séférian RolandORCID, Tilmes SimoneORCID
Abstract
Abstract. The northern-high-latitude permafrost contains almost twice the carbon
content of the atmosphere, and it is widely considered to be a non-linear and
tipping element in the earth's climate system under global warming. Solar
geoengineering is a means of mitigating temperature rise and reduces some of
the associated climate impacts by increasing the planetary albedo; the
permafrost thaw is expected to be moderated under slower temperature rise.
We analyze the permafrost response as simulated by five fully coupled earth
system models (ESMs) and one offline land surface model under four future
scenarios; two solar geoengineering scenarios (G6solar and G6sulfur) based
on the high-emission scenario (ssp585) restore the global temperature from
the ssp585 levels to the moderate-mitigation scenario (ssp245) levels via
solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection. G6solar and G6sulfur can
slow the northern-high-latitude permafrost degradation but cannot restore
the permafrost states from ssp585 to those under ssp245. G6solar and
G6sulfur tend to produce a deeper active layer than ssp245 and expose more
thawed soil organic carbon (SOC) due to robust residual high-latitude
warming, especially over northern Eurasia. G6solar and G6sulfur preserve
more SOC of 4.6 ± 4.6 and 3.4 ± 4.8 Pg C (coupled ESM simulations) or
16.4 ± 4.7 and 12.3 ± 7.9 Pg C (offline land surface model
simulations), respectively, than ssp585 in the northern near-surface
permafrost region. The turnover times of SOC decline slower under G6solar
and G6sulfur than ssp585 but faster than ssp245. The permafrost
carbon–climate feedback is expected to be weaker under solar geoengineering.
Funder
National Natural Science Foundation of China Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum Horizon 2020
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Reference110 articles.
1. Aalto, J., Karjalainen, O., Hjort, J., and Luoto, M.: Statistical
Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and
Active Layer Thickness, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4889–4898,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078007, 2018. 2. Andresen, C. G., Lawrence, D. M., Wilson, C. J., McGuire, A. D., Koven, C.,
Schaefer, K., Jafarov, E., Peng, S., Chen, X., Gouttevin, I., Burke, E.,
Chadburn, S., Ji, D., Chen, G., Hayes, D., and Zhang, W.: Soil moisture and
hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison,
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020. 3. Bala, G., Caldeira, K., and Nemani, R.: Fast versus slow response in climate
change: implications for the global hydrological cycle, Clim. Dynam., 35,
423–434, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0583-y, 2010. 4. Banerjee, A., Butler, A. H., Polvani, L. M., Robock, A., Simpson, I. R., and
Sun, L.: Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate
geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21,
6985–6997, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, 2021. 5. Beer, C.: Permafrost sub-grid heterogeneity of soil properties key for 3-D
soil processes and future climate projections, Front. Earth Sci., 4, 81,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2016.00081, 2016.
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|