Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022

Abstract

Abstract. Demographic yearbooks of the Czech Republic, prepared by the Czech Statistical Office for the 1919–2022 period, contain official figures on the number of fatalities attributed to excessive natural cold, excessive natural heat, lightning, natural hazards, air pressure changes, and falls on ice or snow, as well as details about the sex and age of the deceased, covering a 104-year period or parts of it. These yearbooks, influenced by evolving international classifications of diseases, tend to underestimate the fatality numbers for excessive natural heat, natural hazards, and air pressure changes in particular. Out of a total of 9259 weather-related fatalities (with a mean annual rate of 89.0 fatalities), 74.9 % were caused by excessive natural cold and 19.3 % by lightning. No trend was identified in natural hazards, whilst statistically significant decreasing trends were found for lightning fatalities and increasing trends for excessive natural cold, excessive natural heat, and falls on ice or snow. Males and seniors aged ≥65 years were the most common sex and age categories affected. The number of fatalities attributed to excessive natural cold has partly increased as a result of the gradually ageing population and the rise in the number of homeless people since the 1990s. A statistically significant relationship between cold-related fatalities and mean January–February and winter (December–February) temperatures was established, evidenced by high negative correlation coefficients. Lightning deaths have notably decreased since the 1970s, primarily due to a significant reduction in the number of people employed in agriculture, an increase in urban population, better weather forecasting, lifestyle changes, and improved medical care. Although there is a significant positive correlation between these fatalities and the number of days with thunderstorms, the relationship is relatively weak. The results obtained for the Czech Republic align well with similar studies in Europe and elsewhere. While the demographic yearbooks cover only a part of weather-related fatalities, their circumstances, and characteristics, combining them with other similar databases is crucial to gain the necessary knowledge usable in risk management for the preservation of human lives.