Estimation of peak discharges of historical floods

Abstract

Abstract. There is no doubt, that the hazard assessment of future floods especially under consideration of the recent environmental change can be significantly improved by the consideration of historic flood events. While flood frequency inventories on local, regional and even European scale are already developed and published, the estimation of their magnitudes indicated by discharges is still challenging. Such data are required due to significant human impact on river channels and floodplains though historic flood levels cannot be related to recent ones or recent discharges. Based on own experiences from single local key studies the general outline of an approach to estimate the discharge of the previous flood based on handed down flood level and topographic data is presented. The model for one-dimensional steady flow is based on the empirical Manning equation for the mean flow velocity. Background and potential sources of information, acceptable simplifications and data transformation for each element of the model-equation are explained and discussed. Preliminary experiences on the accuracy of ±10% are documented and potential approaches for the validation of individual estimations given. A brief discussion on benefits and limitations including a generalized statement on alternative approaches closes the review presentation of the approach.